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Angst over the scarcity of workers is spreading and growing more intense by the day.ÌýEmployers in all sorts of industries all over the country are having trouble finding workers, even after raising wages.ÌýÌý

The leading explanation of the scarcity of workers remains the decrease in the labor force caused by the pandemic combined with the federal government’s aggressive fiscal stimulus in response to the pandemic.

That explanation certainly describes the labor force shock in the first year of the pandemic.ÌýShuttered day care facilities, schools going online, supplemental unemployment benefits and people opting for early retirement are part of the pandemic labor market story.

But that story is over.ÌýThe leading explanation no longer applies.ÌýThe pandemic-induced decrease in the labor force has been largely erased.

After shrinking by 5 percent in the first two months of the pandemic, the U.S. labor force has recovered to within one percent of its pre-pandemic level.

By the way, the labor forces of Georgia and Glynn also shrunk by five percent in the first two months of the pandemic.ÌýGeorgia’s labor force has recovered to within one-half of one percent of its pre-pandemic level.ÌýGlynn’s labor force recovered to its pre-pandemic level back in February 2021, almost a year ago.Ìý ÌýÌý

Something far more formidable than the pandemic is driving the current scarcity of workers.ÌýWe don’t have to look far to see it.Ìý

In 2006, Glynn had a population of 74,870 and a labor force of a tad more than 39,000.ÌýToday, Glynn has a population of almost 86,000 and a labor force of a tad more than 39,000.ÌýSixteen years, 15 percent population growth, zero labor force growth.

How did that happen?ÌýWe have good demographic data for 2010-2019, so let’s use that.ÌýFrom 2010 to 2019, Glynn’s population increased by 6.9 percent.ÌýOur population of people 65 years and older increased by 44.7 percent.ÌýOur population of 55 to 64 year olds increased by 10.0 percent.ÌýOur population of prime age workers – 25 to 54 year olds – decreased by 0.2 percent.ÌýOur population of 20 to 24 year olds increased by 2.9 percent.ÌýOur population of people under age 20 decreased by 5.4 percent.

It’s clear what has been at work here.ÌýWhile our retirement age population has been growing like weeds, our working age population hasn’t budged.

It’s also clear where this is headed.ÌýOur population of future workers is shrinking.

The demographic trend in Glynn is not atypical. Take Georgia.ÌýFrom 2010 to 2019, Georgia’s population increased by 9.3 percent.ÌýIts 65 years and older population increased by 47.3 percent.ÌýIts 55 to 64 years population increased by 19.8 percent.ÌýIts prime age worker population increased by 3.4 percent.ÌýIts population of future workers, those under age 16 years, increased by 0.4 percent.

The U.S. looks more like Glynn than Georgia.ÌýFrom 2010 to 2019, the population of the U.S. increased by 6.1 percent.ÌýThe nation’s 65 years and older population increased by 33.7 percent.ÌýIts population of 55 to 64 year olds increased by 15.5 percent.ÌýIts prime age worker population increased by 1.0 percent.ÌýIts population of 20 to 24 years olds decreased by 0.9 percent, its population of 16 to 19 year olds decreased by 3.6 percent, and its population under 16 years decreased by 1.3 percent.

The U.S. is headed into an era it has never experienced: an era in which the labor force shrinks while the population continues to grow.

I have a strong aversion to contrived drama and prediction, but the consequences of these demographics are unlikely to be minor.ÌýMore in future columns.