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Economists have traditionally considered the minimum wage a bad idea.听But in recent years, including this one, a number of economists have come out in favor of the minimum wage.听Why?听What happened that caused some economists to change their minds?

If you鈥檙e into cerebral drama, it鈥檚 not a bad story.

The key to understanding the economics of the minimum wage is careful thinking about the buyers鈥� side of the labor market, the employers.

Businesses compete with each other for the labor that workers supply.听But a business will not pay a worker more than the productivity the worker contributes.听And businesses are creative.听Businesses are literally in business because they鈥檙e good at figuring out how to produce things people want and how to produce them in the most economical way.听Their survival depends on it.

If a type of labor or any other input to production becomes more expensive, businesses aren鈥檛 鈥渟tuck.鈥澨齌hey figure out ways to economize. One way is to use less of the now more expensive input. 听

That鈥檚 the predicament of the minimum wage.听Raise the minimum wage and businesses will figure out ways to cut back on low-skilled labor.听For some low-skilled workers, that means reduced hours.听For others, it means unemployment.

A policy that hurts many of the people it鈥檚 supposed to help is not a good policy, which is why economists have traditionally opposed the minimum wage. It was a settled issue.

Or so it seemed.

The reasoning above says that raising the minimum wage will reduce the employment of low-skilled workers.听But it doesn鈥檛 say by how much.听That 鈥渉ow much鈥� has become very important.听For many economists, it鈥檚 the crux of the minimum wage issue.听

Economists call the 鈥渉ow much鈥� the employment effect of the minimum wage.听Determining the actual employment effect is an empirical matter.听It requires statistical analysis of actual experience.

Economists have been estimating the employment effect now for 50 years and counting.听The results?听Of 121 estimates in studies published since 1992, 80 percent find a negative employment effect: increasing the minimum wage reduces the employment of low-skilled workers.听No surprise.

But many of the negative estimates are small. For example, estimates that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage reduces the employment of low-skilled workers by between 1.5 and 3.5 percent are common.

Some of the 121 estimates are close to zero.听And some are even positive, suggesting that increasing the minimum wage actually increases the employment of low-skilled workers.

It鈥檚 those estimates of the employment effect 鈥� the small negatives, the close to zeroes, and especially the positives 鈥� that have caused some economists to change their minds about the minimum wage.

See why?听A negative but small employment effect suggests that raising the minimum wage may substantially benefit low-skilled workers.听 They receive a higher wage at only a small cost in reduced hours or a slightly longer job search.

听An employment effect of zero is even better: a higher wage with no cost in reduced hours or time unemployed.听A positive effect is better still: a higher wage and businesses want their services even more.听A positive effect may sound like water running uphill, but that鈥檚 what some studies have found.

And that鈥檚 the point.听Some economists have changed their minds and now support the minimum wage because the evidence, as they interpret it, says they should.

That said, there are problems with the evidence and, in my view, a larger problem that goes beyond the evidence.听We鈥檒l look at that in my next column.